Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse?

In order to limit the disease burden and economic costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand how effective and widely distributed a vaccine must be in order to have a beneficial impact on public health. To evaluate the potential effect of a vaccine, we developed risk equations for the daily risk of COVID-19 infection both currently and after a vaccine becomes available. Our risk equations account for the basic transmission probability of COVID-19 (β) and the lowered risk due to various protection options: physical distancing; face coverings such as masks, goggles, face shields or other medical equipment; handwashing; and vaccination. We found that the outcome depends significantly on the degree of vaccine uptake: if uptake is higher than 80%, then the daily risk can be cut by 50% or more. However, if less than 40% of people get vaccinated and other protection options are abandoned—as may well happen in the wake of a COVID-19 vaccine—then introducing even an excellent vaccine will produce a worse outcome than our current situation. It is thus critical that effective education strategies are employed in tandem with vaccine rollout. For more details see: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-00083-2 and https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/8/4/761 Bambi Got COVID Vivek Kapur Pennsylvania State University We find strong evidence of extensive SARS-CoV-2 infection of white-tailed deer, a free-living wild animal species with widespread distribution across North, Central, and South America. The analysis shows infection of deer resulted from multiple spillovers from humans, followed by efficient deer-to-deer transmission. The discovery of widespread infection of white-tailed deer indicates their establishment as potential reservoir hosts for SARS-CoV-2, a finding with important implications for the ecology, long-term persistence, and evolution of the virus, including the potential for spillback to humans. For more details see: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2121644119 *Contents* 0:00 - Introduction: James A. Glazier 5:29 - Stacey Smith?: Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse? 27:03 - Discussion of Vaccination Paradoxes 36:18 - Vivek Kapur: Bambi Got COVID 59:50 - Discussion of Deer Infection If you found this video useful, please check out our other videos on computational modeling, infection and immunology: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLiEtieOeWbMKh9VcQoinSwODcSZKMTGat Please consider joining our IMAG/MSM WG on Multiscale Modeling and Viral Pandemics: https://www.imagwiki.nibib.nih.gov/content/msm-viral-pandemics-meetings Please also consider joining the Global Alliance for Immune Prediction and Intervention: http://glimprint.org/